![]() ![]() Over the next two years Chinese household consumption will continue declining as a share of GDP.BRICs and other developing countries have not decoupled in any meaningful sense, and once the current liquidity-driven investment boom subsides the developing world will be hit hard by the global crisis.These will be driven overall by a contraction in global liquidity, a sharply rising risk premium, substantial deleveraging, and a sharp contraction in international trade and capital imbalances. If I am right, this means that there still is a pretty significant set of major adjustments globally that have to take place before we will have reversed the most important of the many global debt and payments imbalances that have been created during the last two decades. My basic sense is that we are at the end of one of the six or so major globalization cycles that have occurred in the past two centuries. We are so caught up in noise and market volatility – as the market swings first in one direction and then, as regulators react, in the other direction – that it is easy to lose sight of the bigger picture. I often start my thinking process by asking, “what is the most ambitious articulation of my goal?” One of the most valuable outcomes of thinking big is being able to step outside your comfort zone, away from the day-to-day routine.Markets have been crazy this month, but rather than try to wade through all the news, much of which doesn’t seem to have much informational content, I thought I would duck out altogether and instead make a list of things I expect will happen over the next several years. Having a time and a place when you know you’ll need to present your ideas (such as at a big meeting) to an audience is a good way to force you to structure your approach. Then, I’ll ensure there’s a specific deliverable and audience for the proposals. Next, I’ll make a list of potential features, then group those features into themes. If I want to create a new product roadmap, my first steps may include finding all the various Google Docs and Asana projects where we’ve done roadmapping in the past. If I have big goal, I will generally procrastinate on tackling it unless I immediately choose the first steps. For example: How can I help the designers who report to me be as effective as possible? Solutions: Establish a mentorship program or a process for critique. Identify a problem and several solutions. If they do, decompose them into smaller pieces until each one feels doable. If you want to redesign your product, break down this ambition into more specific actions that have a finite timeline: For example, I want to write a draft for the product roadmap over the next two years, broken up into a hierarchy of themes.īig questions are worth asking but they should be framed in a way that doesn’t feel burdensome or insurmountable. Unpacking your big-picture thinking into a handful of specific goals will make it that much more actionable. I’ve had long, strategic, and productive dialogues with my computer by simply writing out questions and answering them in free-flow form. Through this exercise, your teammates will get a sense of ownership over the conclusions you come to together, while you’ll gain focus and clarity.Īlternately, you can have a conversation with yourself by buddying up with a text editor or journal: start asking yourself the big questions and write out your answers. If you’re in a management position, consider buddying with someone who reports to you: teammates who don’t often get the chance to strategize will be energized by the opportunity to do it with you. ![]()
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